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Alex Perez vs Sumudaerji

Flyweight · Prelims · UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo

Alex Perez
Alex Perez
Age 34 · Elo 1530
WLWLL
125 days since last fight
vs
Sumudaerji
Sumudaerji
Age 30 · Elo 1535
WWWLL
83 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Alex PerezSumudaerji
GPT GPT: Alex Perez 69% GPT: Sumudaerji 31% 69% 31% Elo Elo: Alex Perez 49% Elo: Sumudaerji 51% 49% 51%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Alex PerezSumudaerji
Strikes landed / min Alex Perez Strikes landed / min: 4.22 4.22 Sumudaerji Strikes landed / min: 4.40 4.40 Strikes absorbed / min Alex Perez Strikes absorbed / min: 3.24 3.24 Sumudaerji Strikes absorbed / min: 2.29 2.29 Striking accuracy Alex Perez Striking accuracy: 45% 45% Sumudaerji Striking accuracy: 50% 50% Striking defense Alex Perez Striking defense: 58% 58% Sumudaerji Striking defense: 63% 63% Takedowns / 15 min Alex Perez Takedowns / 15 min: 2.07 2.07 Sumudaerji Takedowns / 15 min: 0.76 0.76 Takedown defense Alex Perez Takedown defense: 74% 74% Sumudaerji Takedown defense: 73% 73% Sub attempts / 15 min Alex Perez Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.8 0.8 Sumudaerji Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.5 0.5

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
GPT GPT: KO/TKO 22% 22% GPT: Submission 18% 18% GPT: Decision 60% 60%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

GPT
Alex Perez by Decision, 69% confidence

Perez is the more proven, well-rounded fighter with a strong wrestling base (2.04 TD avg, 46% TD accuracy, 77% TD defense) and solid defensive striking (58% StrDef, positive strike differential). Sumudaerji has the cleaner, longer-range southpaw striking (higher SLpM, 53% accuracy, 7-inch reach edge) but offers minimal takedown offense and only 66% takedown defense, which has historically been his vulnerability. Over three rounds, Perez is statistically more likely to mix leg kicks, pocket exchanges, and level changes to blunt Sumudaerji's volume and bank control time, while avoiding prolonged open-space kickboxing where Sumudaerji is most dangerous. Sumudaerji's finishing upside keeps KO/TKO live, but Perez's durability, experience against elite flyweights, and grappling edge tilt the probabilities toward a competitive but clear decision.