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Neil Magny vs Yaroslav Amosov

Welterweight · Prelims · UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape

FINAL: Yaroslav Amosov by SUB Anaconda Choke
Neil Magny
Neil Magny
Age 38 · Elo 1615
WLWLW
77 days since last fight
vs
Yaroslav Amosov
Yaroslav Amosov
Age 32 · Elo 1562*
No UFC fights on record

Who wins, by source

Neil MagnyYaroslav Amosov
Claude Claude: Neil Magny 28% Claude: Yaroslav Amosov 72% 28% 72% GPT GPT: Neil Magny 26% GPT: Yaroslav Amosov 74% 26% 74% Elo Elo: Neil Magny 58% Elo: Yaroslav Amosov 42% 58% 42%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Neil MagnyYaroslav Amosov
Strikes landed / min Neil Magny Strikes landed / min: 3.40 3.40 Yaroslav Amosov Strikes landed / min: no data - Strikes absorbed / min Neil Magny Strikes absorbed / min: 2.44 2.44 Yaroslav Amosov Strikes absorbed / min: no data - Striking accuracy Neil Magny Striking accuracy: 46% 46% Yaroslav Amosov Striking accuracy: 0% 0% Striking defense Neil Magny Striking defense: 51% 51% Yaroslav Amosov Striking defense: 0% 0% Takedowns / 15 min Neil Magny Takedowns / 15 min: 2.17 2.17 Yaroslav Amosov Takedowns / 15 min: no data - Takedown defense Neil Magny Takedown defense: 55% 55% Yaroslav Amosov Takedown defense: 0% 0% Sub attempts / 15 min Neil Magny Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.3 0.3 Yaroslav Amosov Sub attempts / 15 min: no data -

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 25% 25% Claude: Submission 15% 15% Claude: Decision 60% 60%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 14% 14% GPT: Submission 23% 23% GPT: Decision 63% 63%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Yaroslav Amosov by Decision, 72% confidence

While Amosov lacks UFC data, he enters as an undefeated Bellator champion (27-0) with elite wrestling credentials. Magny's recent form shows vulnerability to power strikers (KO losses in 2 of last 3), and his 54% takedown defense against 2.15 takedowns per fight suggests defensive wrestling issues. Amosov's sambo background and championship experience should allow him to control positioning against Magny's volume-based approach. Magny's 46% striking accuracy and negative strike differential (-2.48 absorbed vs 3.44 landed) indicate defensive liabilities that a fresh, elite competitor can exploit.

GPT
Yaroslav Amosov by Decision, 74% confidence

Amosov's elite wrestling, top control, and physical strength should consistently beat Magny's clinch-and-volume game over three rounds. Magny's length, cardio, and veteran savvy make him durable and hard to finish, but his historically average takedown defense and tendency to be controlled by strong wrestlers align poorly against Amosov's pressure style and chain wrestling.