Melquizael Costa vs Morgan Charriere

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Charriere's superior striking volume (3.87 SLPM vs 3.46) and knockout power (75% recent KO rate) create significant advantages against Costa's vulnerable striking defense (58%). Costa's frequent weight class changes (4 in recent fights) and history of being finished by strikes suggest compromised durability. While Costa offers submission threats (1.1 per fight), Charriere's 83% takedown defense and orthodox vs southpaw advantage in striking exchanges should keep the fight standing where his 51% accuracy and finishing instinct prevail.

Charriere appears to be the more efficient and complete fighter at this stage: he has higher striking accuracy and volume, a positive but controlled strike differential, and significantly better takedown accuracy and takedown defense. Costa's numbers suggest he is hittable in wrestling exchanges (52% TD defense) and relies more on opportunistic grappling, which is harder to impose on a compact, well-balanced fighter like Charriere with 83% TD defense and strong top control. On the feet, Charriere's southpaw tools, sharper boxing, and ability to mix in well-timed takedowns should let him edge rounds even if Costa has moments of success with pressure and volume. Both are reasonably durable and well-rounded, making a clean finish less likely over three rounds.