- Charriere's 3/4 recent wins by KO/TKO vs Costa's KO loss vulnerability
- 83% takedown defense neutralizes Costa's grappling (35% TD accuracy)
- Costa's weight class instability (Lightweight to Featherweight) affecting chin
- Orthodox vs Southpaw favors Charriere's straight right hand path
Write-up
Charriere's superior striking volume (3.87 SLPM vs 3.46) and knockout power (75% recent KO rate) create significant advantages against Costa's vulnerable striking defense (58%). Costa's frequent weight class changes (4 in recent fights) and history of being finished by strikes suggest compromised durability. While Costa offers submission threats (1.1 per fight), Charriere's 83% takedown defense and orthodox vs southpaw advantage in striking exchanges should keep the fight standing where his 51% accuracy and finishing instinct prevail.
- Charriere's superior striking efficiency: higher SLpM (3.87 vs 3.46) and better accuracy (51% vs 46%) with similar defensive metrics.
- Major grappling edge for Charriere in wrestling reliability: 57% TD accuracy vs Costa's 35%, plus much stronger takedown defense (83% vs 52%).
- Costa's offensive grappling threat (1.1 subs per fight) is mitigated by Charriere's strong base, balance, and top control, making it difficult for Costa to consistently win extended grappling exchanges.
- Stylistic matchup favors Charriere's well-rounded southpaw game and ability to dictate where the fight takes place, which is key in a likely three-round battle.
- Both fighters' durability and cardio profiles point toward a competitive, high-output fight that goes the distance more often than not.
Write-up
Charriere appears to be the more efficient and complete fighter at this stage: he has higher striking accuracy and volume, a positive but controlled strike differential, and significantly better takedown accuracy and takedown defense. Costa's numbers suggest he is hittable in wrestling exchanges (52% TD defense) and relies more on opportunistic grappling, which is harder to impose on a compact, well-balanced fighter like Charriere with 83% TD defense and strong top control. On the feet, Charriere's southpaw tools, sharper boxing, and ability to mix in well-timed takedowns should let him edge rounds even if Costa has moments of success with pressure and volume. Both are reasonably durable and well-rounded, making a clean finish less likely over three rounds.