Melissa Croden vs Luana Santos

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Santos brings proven UFC experience with a 66.7% win rate and complete statistical profile, while Croden debuts with no available data. Santos' well-rounded game includes 4.28 SLPM, 80% takedown defense, and 1.2 submissions per fight, showing multiple paths to victory. Her recent submission wins demonstrate finishing ability, while the loss to Shevchenko proves championship-level experience. The weight class change from flyweight to bantamweight could benefit Santos' power. Without any data on Croden's style or level of competition, Santos' proven UFC skillset and finishing threats make her the clear favorite.

Santos brings proven UFC metrics and a well-rounded game-high striking accuracy (51%), solid defensive numbers (61% striking defense, 80% takedown defense), and consistent offensive wrestling (1.62 TDs per fight, 1.2 subs per fight). Croden enters with no UFC sample and unknown efficiency at this level, making it difficult to project her outperforming Santos' established pace and durability. Over three rounds, Santos' mix of clean boxing combinations, clinch work, and opportunistic takedowns should allow her to bank minutes, control the tempo, and win on volume and cage control, even if she doesn't secure a finish.