Joanderson Brito vs Melsik Baghdasaryan

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Baghdasaryan's superior striking metrics (5.28 SLPM vs 3.02, 61% accuracy vs 50%) and defensive striking (58% vs 44%) should allow him to outpoint Brito over three rounds. While Brito's wrestling (3.08 TDAvg) poses a threat, both fighters show identical 72% TDD, and Baghdasaryan's southpaw stance creates additional defensive angles. Baghdasaryan's 517-day layoff is concerning, but his striking advantages and Brito's recent decision losses suggest a technical striking battle favoring the more accurate striker.

Brito's aggressive wrestling and high-percentage takedowns (3.08 TDs per fight at 68% accuracy) directly target Baghdasaryan's striking-centric style and lack of offensive grappling. While Melsik is the cleaner, higher-volume striker with superior striking defense and accuracy, he does his best work at kickboxing range and historically slows when forced to defend layered takedown attempts. Brito's ability to chain shots, create scrambles, and attack the neck/back once the fight hits the mat gives him multiple submission pathways over three rounds, especially if Baghdasaryan has to fight off the cage for extended stretches. On the feet Melsik is live for damage and possibly a KO, but the stylistic matchup and grappling metrics favor Brito to eventually secure dominant positions and a finish or at least win via control.