Cesar Almeida vs Cezary Oleksiejczuk

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Limited data on Oleksiejczuk, but Almeida's kickboxing pedigree and 3-fight win streak give him momentum. His 57% striking accuracy and orthodox vs southpaw matchup favor his counter-striking style. Almeida's experience edge and recent form trajectory suggest he can handle the unknown quantity of Oleksiejczuk.

Despite the skewed early stats for Oleksiejczuk, Almeida is the far more proven, high-level striker with elite kickboxing credentials, better composure over three rounds, and sufficient takedown defense to keep this largely standing. Oleksiejczuk's inflated numbers come from a tiny sample size and aggressive style that leaves defensive openings; against a sharp counter-kicker like Almeida, that pressure is likely to get him clipped as the fight progresses.