Back
WINNER
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. KapeFlyweightMain card
Brandon
Royval
8-4UFC
VS
Manel
Kape
6-3UFC
Final: Manel Kape by KO/TKO Punches
Who wins
Royval winsevenKape wins
Claude 65% Kape
GPT 63% Kape
Elo 52% Kape
Claude
65%
Kape
GPT
63%
Kape
Elo
52%
Kape
1571 vs 1583
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
5'9"
Height
5'5"
68"
Reach
68"
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
5.60
Landed / min
4.44
4.24
Absorbed / minlower better
4.06
42%
Strike accuracy
53%
42%
Strike defense
59%
0.89
Takedowns / 15
0.54
64%
TD accuracy
33%
45%
TD defense
73%
1.2
Subs / 15
0.4
How it ends
55%Decision
Claude calls Decision
KO/TKO 30%Submission 15%Decision 55%
50%Decision
GPT calls Decision
KO/TKO 32%Submission 18%Decision 50%
Formnewest first
Brandon Royval168 days out
L
Joshua Van
U-DEC · 2025-06-28
W
Tatsuro Taira
S-DEC · 2024-04-27
W
Tatsuro Taira
S-DEC · 2024-04-20
W
Brandon Moreno
S-DEC · 2024-02-24
L
Alexandre Pantoja
U-DEC · 2023-12-16
Manel Kape287 days out
W
Asu Almabayev
KO/TKO Punches · 2025-03-01
W
Bruno Silva
KO/TKO Punches · 2024-12-14
L
Muhammad Mokaev
U-DEC · 2024-02-17
W
Felipe dos Santos
U-DEC · 2023-09-09
W
David Dvorak
U-DEC · 2022-12-17
Why
Claude
Manel Kape
65% · Decision
- Kape's 59% striking defense vs Royval's 47% - significant defensive gap
- Kape on 2-fight TKO streak showing improved finishing ability
- Royval's 3-fight decision streak indicates declining finishing power
- Both fighters lost to Pantoja by decision, but Kape showed better defensive metrics
Write-up
Kape's recent finishing streak (2 straight TKOs) and superior striking defense (59% vs 47%) give him the edge. While Royval has better grappling metrics, Kape's improved takedown defense (73%) and power striking advantage should control the fight. Both are southpaws, neutralizing stance advantages. Kape's momentum from finishing Almabayev and Silva suggests peak form.
GPT
Manel Kape
63% · Decision
- Kape holds a clear striking efficiency edge (53% accuracy and 59% striking defense vs Royval's 39% accuracy and 47% defense), which should win minutes in a largely stand-up fight.
- Kape's 73% takedown defense and strong hips make it difficult for Royval to reliably get the fight to grappling sequences where his submission game is most dangerous.
- Royval's chaotic, high-variance style creates finishing opportunities but also leaves defensive openings; over a full fight, Kape's cleaner, more technical shot selection and counters favor him on the cards if he avoids extended scrambles.
Write-up
Kape's superior striking accuracy, better defensive metrics, and strong takedown defense should allow him to control the stand-up over three rounds, limiting Royval's scrambling and submission opportunities despite Royval's higher grappling threat and chaos-based style.