Elo slightly favors Dumont (1580 vs 1569, 52-48) but the recent trend and common-opponent evidence both point to Perez. Perez's +55 Elo trend is the steepest on the card; Dumont's is +11 and she is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Joselyne Edwards, the same fighter Perez beat by unanimous decision in June 2024. Both women beat Karol Rosa and Ashlee Evans-Smith, so the Edwards result is the only differentiator among three shared opponents and it favors Perez. Stylistically this is Dumont's technical striking (3.86 SLPM, 65% defense, only 2.16 absorbed) against Perez's relentless wrestling at 4.9 takedowns per 15 minutes on 49% accuracy. Dumont's 72% takedown defense is respectable, but Perez just took down and controlled Macy Chiasson, a much bigger and stronger grappler than Dumont, for three rounds in February. Dumont has the size (5'7 vs 5'5, former featherweight) and the cleaner striking to win rounds at range, and if she stuffs the first two or three takedown attempts in each round the fight tilts her way. The historical concern with Perez is her round-three fade, visible in the Rosa fight, which gives Dumont a late window. On balance Perez's takedown volume against a 72% defender should produce roughly one to two takedowns per round with top control, enough to win two of three on judges' cards that reward control. Dumont at 35 with a loss in her last outing, versus Perez at 31 on a five-fight streak with the shared-opponent edge, is enough to override the marginal Elo gap.

Perez earns a narrow edge through her substantially higher takedown rate and favorable supplied common-opponent results. Dumont's 72% takedown defense, higher striking volume and stronger striking differential make this competitive. Perez needs successful wrestling exchanges to offset Dumont's striking advantage. Low submission activity supports a decision; method percentages are conditional on a Perez victory.