Vitor Petrino vs Thomas Petersen

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Petersen's superior striking volume (4.32 SLPM vs 2.82) and accuracy (61% vs 45%) should dominate the standup exchanges. While Petrino has a grappling advantage with 3.98 takedowns per fight, Petersen's perfect 100% takedown defense negates this threat. Petersen's southpaw stance creates awkward angles against Petrino's orthodox stance, and his 59-pound weight advantage at heavyweight provides significant power differential. Petrino's recent submission losses indicate vulnerability on the ground despite his wrestling credentials.

Petersen holds significant advantages in striking accuracy (61% vs. 45%), striking volume (4.32 SLpM vs. 2.82), and striking defense (57% vs. 45%). His perfect 100% takedown defense, though from a small sample, suggests Petrino's high takedown average may be blunted. While Petrino is more aggressive with takedowns and submissions, Petersen's defensive metrics and higher output favor him in a three-round fight, especially if he maintains range with his 3-inch reach advantage.