Lucas Rocha vs Stewart Nicoll

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Nicoll's wrestling dominance with 5.66 takedowns per fight at 100% accuracy should control this matchup against Rocha's 61% takedown defense. While both fighters are coming off submission losses, Nicoll's superior striking differential (+1.89 vs -2.48) and volume advantage (3.02 vs 2.0 SLPM) provide multiple paths to victory. Rocha's defensive striking at just 39% leaves him vulnerable to accumulation. The slight reach advantage for Nicoll combined with his wrestling threat creates a difficult puzzle for Rocha to solve.

Stewart Nicoll holds clear statistical advantages in both striking and grappling metrics. He lands more strikes per minute with higher accuracy, absorbs significantly fewer strikes, and averages 5.66 takedowns per fight with perfect takedown accuracy. Rocha has shown defensive vulnerabilities, absorbing more than twice as many strikes as he lands and offering little grappling threat. Nicoll's strong wrestling and better striking differential should allow him to control the pace, secure takedowns, and avoid danger, leading to a decision victory.