Lucas Almeida vs Michael Aswell

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Aswell's striking volume advantage (10.33 vs 4.94 SLPM) and superior striking differential (+3.53 vs +0.02) should overwhelm Almeida over three rounds. While Almeida has more UFC experience, his recent form shows vulnerability to both strikes and submissions. Aswell's 50% striking accuracy with double the output creates a clear path to victory through volume and pressure.

Michael Aswell possesses a significant edge in striking volume (10.33 SLpM vs 4.94 SLpM) and accuracy (50% vs 43%), along with a better striking differential (+3.53 vs +0.02). Both fighters lack grappling threats, making this likely a stand-up battle. Aswell's higher output and strike defense (52% vs 46%) should allow him to outpoint Almeida over three rounds, though his high strike absorption (6.8 SApM) means Almeida remains live for moments of success. Aswell's slight reach advantage and effective strike rate further reinforce his edge.