Luan Lacerda vs Saimon Oliveira

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Despite both fighters coming off losses, Oliveira's superior submission game (1.6 subs per fight vs Lacerda's 0.6) and better takedown defense differential create opportunities. Lacerda's recent KO loss raises durability concerns, while Oliveira's grappling-heavy approach avoids striking exchanges. The 3-inch reach disadvantage for Oliveira actually benefits his inside fighting and clinch entries.

Lacerda holds notable advantages in striking output, accuracy, and defensive metrics, while Oliveira's high submission average is offset by his low takedown accuracy and poor takedown defense. Lacerda's superior defensive grappling (75% TDDef) should allow him to keep the fight standing, where his higher volume and efficiency give him the edge over Oliveira's lower output and less effective striking.