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Julia Polastri vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Women's Strawweight · Prelims · UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot

FINAL: Julia Polastri by KO/TKO Punches
Julia Polastri
Julia Polastri
Age 27 · Elo 1507
LWL
196 days since last fight
vs
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Age 39 · Elo 1504
LWWWW
671 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Julia PolastriKarolina Kowalkiewicz
Claude Claude: Julia Polastri 63% Claude: Karolina Kowalkiewicz 37% 63% 37% GPT GPT: Julia Polastri 38% GPT: Karolina Kowalkiewicz 62% 38% 62% Elo Elo: Julia Polastri 50% Elo: Karolina Kowalkiewicz 50% 50% 50%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Julia PolastriKarolina Kowalkiewicz
Strikes landed / min Julia Polastri Strikes landed / min: 6.22 6.22 Karolina Kowalkiewicz Strikes landed / min: 5.71 5.71 Strikes absorbed / min Julia Polastri Strikes absorbed / min: 5.18 5.18 Karolina Kowalkiewicz Strikes absorbed / min: 5.55 5.55 Striking accuracy Julia Polastri Striking accuracy: 56% 56% Karolina Kowalkiewicz Striking accuracy: 43% 43% Striking defense Julia Polastri Striking defense: 59% 59% Karolina Kowalkiewicz Striking defense: 58% 58% Takedowns / 15 min Julia Polastri Takedowns / 15 min: 0.62 0.62 Karolina Kowalkiewicz Takedowns / 15 min: 0.34 0.34 Takedown defense Julia Polastri Takedown defense: 57% 57% Karolina Kowalkiewicz Takedown defense: 73% 73% Sub attempts / 15 min Julia Polastri Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.3 0.3 Karolina Kowalkiewicz Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.2 0.2

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 10% 10% Claude: Submission 25% 25% Claude: Decision 65% 65%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 7% GPT: Submission 5% GPT: Decision 88% 88%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Julia Polastri by Decision, 63% confidence

Polastri's superior grappling (80% takedown accuracy vs Kowalkiewicz's 23%) and recent momentum (2-fight win streak) give her the edge. Kowalkiewicz's 38-year-old legs have shown vulnerability to wrestlers, and Polastri's 3x submission threat advantage (0.6 vs 0.2 per fight) forces Kowalkiewicz to defend constantly. The Brazilian crowd advantage in Rio adds another layer of pressure.

GPT
Karolina Kowalkiewicz by Decision, 62% confidence

Kowalkiewicz holds a slight edge in striking volume and experience at the UFC level, combined with better takedown defense (73% vs 61%) which should help neutralize Polastri's superior takedown accuracy. Both fighters are defensively similar and have comparable output, but Kowalkiewicz's durability and proven ability to sustain high-paced striking exchanges against elite opposition give her a small but notable advantage over three rounds.