Fight Genie logo Fight Genie
Back to the card

Deiveson Figueiredo vs Montel Jackson

Bantamweight · Main card · UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot

FINAL: Deiveson Figueiredo by S-DEC
Deiveson Figueiredo
Deiveson Figueiredo
Age 37 · Elo 1613
LLWWW
161 days since last fight
vs
Montel Jackson
Montel Jackson
Age 33 · Elo 1578
WWWWW
161 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Deiveson FigueiredoMontel Jackson
Claude Claude: Deiveson Figueiredo 28% Claude: Montel Jackson 72% 28% 72% GPT GPT: Deiveson Figueiredo 26% GPT: Montel Jackson 74% 26% 74% Elo Elo: Deiveson Figueiredo 55% Elo: Montel Jackson 45% 55% 45%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Deiveson FigueiredoMontel Jackson
Strikes landed / min Deiveson Figueiredo Strikes landed / min: 3.01 3.01 Montel Jackson Strikes landed / min: 3.39 3.39 Strikes absorbed / min Deiveson Figueiredo Strikes absorbed / min: 3.39 3.39 Montel Jackson Strikes absorbed / min: 1.42 1.42 Striking accuracy Deiveson Figueiredo Striking accuracy: 55% 55% Montel Jackson Striking accuracy: 53% 53% Striking defense Deiveson Figueiredo Striking defense: 51% 51% Montel Jackson Striking defense: 63% 63% Takedowns / 15 min Deiveson Figueiredo Takedowns / 15 min: 1.68 1.68 Montel Jackson Takedowns / 15 min: 3.41 3.41 Takedown defense Deiveson Figueiredo Takedown defense: 58% 58% Montel Jackson Takedown defense: 69% 69% Sub attempts / 15 min Deiveson Figueiredo Sub attempts / 15 min: 1.6 1.6 Montel Jackson Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.3 0.3

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 55% 55% Claude: Submission 15% 15% Claude: Decision 30% 30%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 18% 18% GPT: Submission 10% 10% GPT: Decision 72% 72%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Montel Jackson by KO/TKO, 72% confidence

Jackson's significant physical advantages (5 inches height, 7 inches reach) combined with his superior striking defense (63% vs 51%) create a nightmare matchup for Figueiredo. Jackson's 5-fight win streak with 3 recent KOs shows finishing momentum, while Figueiredo is coming off a loss and has absorbed significant damage recently. Jackson's 71% takedown accuracy neutralizes Figueiredo's grappling threat.

GPT
Montel Jackson by Decision, 74% confidence

Montel Jackson holds significant advantages in reach, defensive striking, and grappling efficiency. His striking defense (63%) and low strikes absorbed per minute (1.42) will mitigate Figueiredo's power, while his takedown accuracy (71%) and output (3.41 TDAvg) make him difficult to out-grapple. Figueiredo's submission threat is notable, but Jackson's size, reach, and control should allow him to dictate the range and pace, leading to a clear decision win.