Jafel Filho vs Clayton Carpenter

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

This grappling chess match favors Carpenter's superior wrestling and submission game. Carpenter's 55% takedown accuracy and 2.95 TD average edges Filho's 33% and 1.77. More critically, Carpenter has finished all three UFC wins by submission while maintaining better striking metrics. Filho's 55% takedown defense won't hold up against Carpenter's relentless wrestling pressure.

Carpenter's superior striking volume, accuracy, and defensive metrics give him an edge in both stand-up exchanges and grappling scrambles. Although both fighters are submission threats, Carpenter's pace, offensive wrestling, and striking differential are likely to control the fight's tempo. Filho is durable and crafty on the ground, but Carpenter's offensive output and wrestling advantage should be enough to secure rounds.