- Carpenter's perfect 3-0 UFC record with all submission wins shows elite finishing ability
- Superior wrestling metrics: 55% TD accuracy vs 33% for Filho
- Carpenter's striking advantage (4.56 vs 2.36 SLPM) prevents Filho from keeping distance
- Filho's 0% takedown defense in one fight suggests vulnerability to wrestlers
Write-up
This grappling chess match favors Carpenter's superior wrestling and submission game. Carpenter's 55% takedown accuracy and 2.95 TD average edges Filho's 33% and 1.77. More critically, Carpenter has finished all three UFC wins by submission while maintaining better striking metrics. Filho's 55% takedown defense won't hold up against Carpenter's relentless wrestling pressure.
- Higher striking output and accuracy for Carpenter
- Superior takedown average and accuracy for Carpenter
- Filho's submission danger mitigated by Carpenter's positional control and pace
Write-up
Carpenter's superior striking volume, accuracy, and defensive metrics give him an edge in both stand-up exchanges and grappling scrambles. Although both fighters are submission threats, Carpenter's pace, offensive wrestling, and striking differential are likely to control the fight's tempo. Filho is durable and crafty on the ground, but Carpenter's offensive output and wrestling advantage should be enough to secure rounds.