Charles Oliveira vs Mateusz Gamrot

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Oliveira's elite submission game (2.7 subs/fight) and 4-inch reach advantage will be decisive. While Gamrot has excellent takedown defense (90%), Oliveira's opportunistic submission style doesn't require traditional takedowns. Fighting in Rio provides massive crowd support, and Oliveira's recent win momentum gives him psychological edge. Gamrot's wrestling-heavy approach plays into Oliveira's guard game.

Gamrot's elite wrestling, high takedown output (5.25 per fight), and 90% takedown defense make it very difficult for Oliveira to impose his submission-heavy grappling. While Oliveira is more dangerous with submissions (2.7 per fight) and has a slight striking volume edge, Gamrot is much harder to control on the ground and absorbs less damage defensively. Gamrot's pace, scrambling, and defensive awareness should allow him to nullify Oliveira's biggest threats and win rounds with top control and consistent takedowns.