Bia Mesquita vs Irina Alekseeva

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Alekseeva brings proven UFC experience with established striking metrics (3.84 SLPM, 43% accuracy) against Mesquita who has zero recorded UFC statistics. Alekseeva's 0.9 submissions per fight and recent submission victory demonstrate active ground threats. The 67-inch reach advantage for Alekseeva controls distance, while her 100% takedown defense prevents any potential grappling entries. Mesquita's complete lack of UFC data suggests she's either debuting or has minimal high-level MMA experience, making this a significant step up in competition.

Irina Alekseeva has proven UFC experience, measurable striking output, and strong takedown defense. Bia Mesquita, despite her elite BJJ background, has no UFC stats or evidence of MMA effectiveness, creating significant uncertainty about her ability to translate grappling into MMA success. Alekseeva's balanced game and 100% takedown defense reduce Mesquita's submission threat, making it likely Alekseeva can control the bout at range and win a decision.