The market (-520, 79% de-vigged) and Elo (54%) disagree sharply here, and the truth sits closer to the market. Elo underrates Umar because his 10-fight UFC sample is short but loaded with elite names, and his lone loss came in a competitive five-rounder against Merab Dvalishvili, the best bantamweight alive. The common-opponent ledger is damning for Song: Umar went 4-0 against shared opposition including a clean decision over Cory Sandhagen, whom Song was stopped by, and both beat Figueiredo. Statistically the fight is lopsided in the phases that matter: Umar absorbs just 1.86 SApM against Song's 3.81, lands at 56% accuracy versus Song's 43%, and averages 4.03 takedowns per fight against a 73% takedown defense that has cracked against elite chain-wrestlers (Merab, Yan both grounded Song). Song's path is a single counter right hand or check hook in scrambles, real but narrow, and Umar's 61% striking defense and low-exposure southpaw-style karate movement minimize those windows. Umar's 0% finish rate over his last five signals how this ends: five rounds of takedowns, back-takes, and point-heavy kickboxing. The 211-day layoff is routine for him (career average 221 days between fights). Umar by wide decision, with a late submission as the live secondary outcome if Song fades chasing the fight.

Nurmagomedov's superior defensive striking, accuracy, and high-frequency wrestling should allow him to dictate range and control extended portions of the fight. He absorbs only 1.86 significant strikes per minute compared with Song's 3.81 and owns a much stronger striking differential of +2.00 versus +0.53. Song's 73% takedown defense and dangerous boxing should make the exchanges competitive, but Nurmagomedov's 4.03 takedowns per fight, layered entries, and ability to mix kicks with grappling project as the more reliable five-round approach.