Data is minimal here and both fighters are effectively debutants from a UFC statistical standpoint, so confidence must be capped and this read is built from context rather than metrics. What we do know cuts against Rodrigues: he was knocked out by Felipe Franco with punches just 38 days before this bout in July 2026, and his DWCS appearance ended in a no-contest that was also stopped on strikes. Taking a light heavyweight fight on a five-and-a-half-week turnaround immediately after a KO loss is a material durability and preparation red flag, recovery protocols alone make a full camp impossible, and fighters returning that quickly from concussive losses historically underperform. Liu Ce (3-1) is the unknown quantity, but he is the promoted local fighter on a Shanghai card, which typically signals the matchmakers believe he is the developmental asset in this pairing; UFC debutants booked at home against opponents coming off stoppage losses are usually positioned to win. Light heavyweight fights involving low-experience fighters skew heavily toward early stoppages, and Rodrigues' 100% finish involvement rate (in both directions) suggests this doesn't see the scorecards. The honest caveat: we have zero film-equivalent data on Liu Ce's striking defense or grappling, and Rodrigues has legitimate finishing power himself, if Liu Ce's chin is untested at this level, this could flip violently. Confidence stays modest at 58.

The available data are limited, but Rodrigues' defensive profile is a major concern: he absorbs 4.6 significant strikes per minute while landing 2.6, producing a -2.0 differential, and his 29% striking defense leaves him highly vulnerable in sustained exchanges. Liu is favored to exploit those defensive gaps with forward pressure and power, although the lack of reliable statistics for Liu lowers confidence.