Rei Tsuruya vs Kevin Borjas

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

There is real tension here between the market (-650, 82% Tsuruya) and Elo (56% Tsuruya, both ratings provisional), and the resolution lies in the stylistic read the Elo model cannot see. Tsuruya is a relentless chain wrestler averaging 5.03 takedowns per fight with a 2.0 submission average, coming off a fresh RNC finish of Luis Gurule. Borjas is a pure striker with zero recorded takedowns and no submission threat whose negative strike differential (-1.40, absorbing 5.27 SApM) means he doesn't even clearly win the phase where he lives. Borjas' 72% takedown defense is respectable but has never been tested by anyone with Tsuruya's shot volume - against 5+ attempts per fight, a 28% failure rate per attempt means he hits the mat multiple times. The common opponent (Joshua Van) beat both by decision, offering no separation, but Tsuruya's loss came against a future contender while Borjas is 1-3 in his last four UFC-recorded bouts with a KO loss to Imanol Rodriguez sandwiched in. The 82% market number is slightly rich given Tsuruya's two-fight UFC sample and modest striking (2.4 SLPM, 43% defense) if the fight stays standing, but the grappling funnel is overwhelming. Tsuruya drags this into deep water and finds the neck by round two.

Tsuruya's high-frequency wrestling and submission threat should dictate the matchup. He averages 5.03 takedowns and 2.0 submission attempts per 15 minutes, while Borjas offers no offensive grappling and absorbs 5.27 significant strikes per minute with a -1.40 striking differential. Borjas' 72% takedown defense could prevent an early finish, but repeated entries, control time, and positional offense favor Tsuruya over three rounds.