Lui enters with genuine momentum: a 3-fight win streak including a UFC 325 decision over Sulangrangbo and a Road to UFC knockout, and his profile (5.3 takedowns per fight attempted, 100% takedown defense in his lone UFC outing, +0.40 striking differential) points to a control-grappler who imposes pace and position. Santiago (6-1) is a UFC debutant with no octagon data, his stats are nulls, not weaknesses, so uncertainty is real. The market prices Lui at 71% (-310), which is a reasonable prior; the 42-point spread reflects Lui's proven regional-scheme wins and Shanghai crowd advantage against an unknown quantity. Lui's finish rate is modest (33% recently, both UFC-adjacent decisions), and his 39% striking accuracy suggests he wins rounds rather than moments. With a debutant on the other side and Lui's grinding tendencies, a takedown-heavy decision is the most probable path. Confidence is capped due to Santiago's data vacuum, a debutant with a 6-1 record can always carry unseen power or submission craft.

Lui is the more supportable pick because he has demonstrated positive striking defense and differential alongside a high-output wrestling game. His 5.3 takedown average, 40% takedown accuracy, and reported 100% takedown defense give him multiple ways to control rounds. Santiago has no meaningful UFC statistical sample, limiting confidence and making a finish difficult to project.