Xiao Long vs Francesco Nuzzi
Bantamweight · Prelims · UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song
Who wins, by source
Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.
Tale of the tape
Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.
How it ends
Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.
The analysis
Xiao Long's UFC ledger tells a consistent story: a durable, decent-volume striker (5.06 SLpM, 47% accuracy, 82% TD defense) who keeps fights competitive but loses the decisive exchanges - he's 1-3 in the UFC and rides two straight decision losses to Garbrandt and SuYoung You. His 20% finish rate and 50% striking defense mean he neither breaks opponents nor avoids being out-pointed. Nuzzi is the classic dangerous debutant: 11-2 with European title-level experience, a fresh southpaw look at 29 years old entering his athletic prime, and no UFC tape for Xiao Long's camp to study. The southpaw-vs-orthodox dynamic historically troubles Xiao Long, whose offense is built on orthodox boxing entries. Home crowd in Shanghai and Xiao Long's proven UFC-level durability keep this close, and the 169-day layoff is not concerning. But Xiao Long's pattern of losing tight decisions to fresher, technically sharper opponents is exactly the trap this booking presents. With no market line and Nuzzi being a debutant, confidence is appropriately modest.
Xiao Long has the stronger measurable UFC-level profile, producing 5.06 significant strikes per minute with a positive +1.21 striking differential and solid 82% takedown defense. His 50% striking defense leaves openings, particularly in the orthodox-versus-southpaw matchup, but Nuzzi's absent UFC statistical sample makes it difficult to establish a reliable advantage in either phase. Xiao's pace, defensive wrestling, and likely ability to bank rounds favor him over three rounds, although the limited information on Nuzzi keeps confidence moderate.