Yan Xiaonan vs Denise Gomes

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

This is my one deliberate disagreement with the market (Yan -170, 59%). The factor being underweighted is the compound of age and inactivity: Yan is 37 years old and enters on a 498-day layoff - well past the ~450-day threshold where ring rust becomes a material, measurable risk - and her last outing was a decision loss to Virna Jandiroba in which she was controlled for long stretches. Meanwhile Gomes, 26, has won four straight, is riding a +19 Elo trend against Yan's -12, and has visibly improved her decision-making since the Angela Hill loss (her only recent blemish). The counterargument is real: Yan's opposition quality (Zhang Weili, Jandiroba, Andrade, Dern) dwarfs Gomes's (Pennington, Reed, Kowalkiewicz), and Yan's 4.69 SLpM at 60% defense beats Gomes's 51% defense on paper. But those career numbers were built by a younger Yan, and strawweights on the wrong side of 35 tend to fall off a cliff in hand speed - exactly the attribute her volume-boxing style depends on. Gomes hits hard for the division (KO of Reed, KO of Yazmin Jauregui previously), pushes a physical pace, and can mix in takedowns (1.45 TD/fight) against Yan's mediocre 64% TDD. Expect Gomes to walk Yan down, win exchanges in the second half as the layoff shows, and take a close decision - with the Shanghai crowd unable to swing the scorecards.

Yan Xiaonan's cleaner distance striking, nine-point advantage in significant-strike defense, and slightly stronger striking differential should allow her to win exchanges while limiting Gomes' power. Gomes offers more takedown and submission activity, but her 34% takedown accuracy makes sustained control uncertain, and Yan owns the better result against their common opponent.