Ding Meng vs Cam Nelson

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

This is a low-information fight with no market line and neither man holding a completed UFC bout on record. Ding Meng brings enormous professional volume - a 35-10 record with 45 wins-and-losses of cage time - but the recency picture is troubling: decision losses on DWCS (2024) and to Jose Souza this May, meaning he is 0-2 in UFC-adjacent competition. Cam Nelson is 7-1 but a total unknown at this level with no logged data. The pick comes down to experience depth and physical frame: Ding is a 6'2" welterweight striker with 45% accuracy and 3.8 SLpM who has seen every style imaginable across 45 pro fights, fighting at home in Shanghai. His negative striking differential (-0.53) and 51% defense flag hittability, and Nelson's 7-1 record with presumably regional finishes makes him live. This is close to a coin flip with a slight lean to the vastly more experienced local fighter, but his inability to close out either of his last two auditions caps confidence near the floor. Both of his recent losses were competitive decisions, which suggests he hangs in fights but struggles to separate on scorecards - that pattern could easily repeat here in either direction.

Ding Meng is the more supportable pick because he has measurable UFC striking output and lands 3.8 significant strikes per minute at 45% accuracy, while Cam Nelson has no meaningful statistical sample. Meng's negative striking differential and unproven takedown defense make this a low-confidence forecast, but his demonstrated activity should help him bank rounds in an otherwise highly uncertain matchup.