Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

This is a matchup of two undefeated fighters where neither has a completed UFC bout, so statistical inference must lean on the market, DWCS footage, and physical profile rather than UFCStats fields. The market is emphatic: Hasan -650 (82% de-vigged), a strong-consensus 64-point spread. Hasan just blitzed Mridul Saikia by KO on DWCS twelve days ago - an extremely short turnaround that signals he took no damage and the UFC fast-tracked him for this Shanghai card. He's 9-0 with a 100% finish rate in tracked bouts, a 5'7" frame with a 70-inch reach that is enormous for flyweight, and a switch stance that complicates entries for the orthodox Rojas. Rojas is also 9-0 but with no tape against comparably vetted opposition, and taking a debut against a hyped, longer, in-rhythm finisher on short notice is a brutal assignment. Per debutant protocol, confidence is capped at 65 despite the lopsided line - unknown-vs-unknown fights carry irreducible variance.

Hasan is the pick based on the only meaningful statistical evidence available: exceptionally high reported striking output, 80% accuracy, and a +24 striking differential. His switch stance should also create favorable angles against Rojas' orthodox stance. Rojas has no usable UFC striking or grappling data, however, and Hasan's extreme numbers likely come from a very small sample, limiting confidence. If Rojas cannot force an unproven grappling phase, Hasan's pressure and clean offense favor an early stoppage.