Namsrai Batbayar vs Andre Lima

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Batbayar is a UFC debutant coming off the Road to UFC pipeline with three straight finishes (KO by knee, RNC, KO by punch), so his statistical profile must be treated as unverified against UFC-level opposition - none of his listed metrics carry meaningful sample weight. Lima, despite dropping a decision to Kevin Borjas in June, has four UFC wins and a genuinely elite efficiency profile: 56% striking accuracy against only 2.66 SApM absorbed, a +1.28 strike differential, and 75% takedown defense. The step up from Road to UFC regional opposition to a proven UFC flyweight is historically one of the hardest jumps in the sport. Batbayar's 100% finish rate on the regional circuit is eye-catching but came against opponents like Yin Shuai and Agulali, not UFC-calibre fighters. Lima's decision-heavy path (three of five wins by decision) and Batbayar's aggression suggest Lima weathers early danger, uses his 3-inch height advantage and cleaner counter-striking to bank rounds. The market's 69% on Lima is roughly right, though the debutant's finishing dynamism keeps genuine variance in this fight - hence confidence capped well below the market's conviction.

Lima projects as the cleaner and more defensively responsible striker. He holds advantages in significant-strike accuracy (56% to 45%), striking defense (58% to 48%), strikes absorbed per minute (2.66 to 3.42), and striking differential (+1.28 to +1.02). Batbayar's higher volume and takedown activity create competitive phases, but his 30% takedown accuracy may struggle against Lima's 75% takedown defense. Lima's 60% takedown accuracy also gives him a useful secondary path to secure close rounds. With both fighters averaging submission activity but limited evidence of sustained ground dominance, Lima winning a competitive decision is the most likely outcome.