Alex Perez vs Sumudaerji

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

This is an immediate rematch of their May 2026 no-contest, and the underlying matchup data leans toward Perez despite Sumudaerji's home-region advantage in Shanghai. The common-opponent evidence is the sharpest signal available: Perez knocked out Charles Johnson in round one in January 2026, while Sumudaerji dropped a clear unanimous decision to the same fighter in 2024. That contrast maps directly onto their profiles - Perez carries real one-punch finishing ability (KO wins over Johnson and Nicolau in his last four victories, 80% recent finish rate) plus a genuine wrestling dimension (2.07 TD/15min at 45% accuracy against Sumudaerji's 73% TD defense and near-zero offensive wrestling at 0.76 TD avg). Sumudaerji is the more polished pure striker on paper - 72-inch reach at 5'8, southpaw, 50% accuracy, 2.11 strike differential, and a three-fight decision win streak - but his 0% finish rate across his last five and losses whenever the competition steps up (Johnson, Elliott sub loss) cap his ceiling. Elo agrees at 53/47 Perez with a +36 trend for Sumudaerji, so this is genuinely competitive, but Perez has more paths: he can win exchanges with counters, land the fight-changing right hand, or lean on takedowns to bank rounds. The risks are Perez's known durability issues (KO loss to Taira, sub loss to Almabayev when hurt) and the 7-inch reach deficit against a rangy southpaw. If Sumudaerji keeps it at kicking range for 15 minutes he decisions Perez, but Perez's pressure and power have historically broken opponents at this level of striker.

Sumudaerji owns the cleaner long-range striking profile, landing 4.40 significant strikes per minute with a +2.11 differential and a seven-inch reach advantage. Perez, however, has the stronger matchup-specific path through pressure wrestling, averaging 2.07 takedowns with 45% accuracy and 0.8 submissions. His better performance against common opponent Charles Johnson also supports Perez's ability to navigate Sumudaerji's length. Perez is likely to close distance, force scrambles, and capitalize on Sumudaerji's historical vulnerability during extended grappling exchanges.