- Grappling: Rodriguez 3.11 TD/15 at 41% with 66% TDD; Alencar 2.0 at 13% with 50% TDD
- Striking differential: Rodriguez +0.80 at 47% accuracy; Alencar -2.31, absorbing 4.8 per minute
- Elo (57% Alencar) appears to be missing Rodriguez's two most recent wins; Alencar's +64 trend is the strongest case for her
- Rodriguez has a 5-inch reach and 2-inch height edge; Alencar's late RNC finish of Carnelossi is her upset path
Write-up
A near coin flip with a slight lean to Rodriguez, against Elo (Alencar 57%). Rodriguez's Elo looks stale: it lists her UFC record as 3-2, her stats stop at the Dec 2024 Knutsson win, and the 2025 Souza and 2026 Hughes wins seem to be missing, which explains a -21 trend on a three-fight win streak. Alencar's +64 rise is real (Demopoulos, Carnelossi by RNC, Polastri), but her per-minute numbers are poor: 2.49 SLpM at 28% accuracy, 4.8 absorbed, 13% takedown accuracy. Rodriguez is more efficient on paper: 3.64 SLpM at 47%, 2.84 absorbed, 3.11 takedowns at 41%, 66% takedown defense vs Alencar's 50%. She also has a 5-inch reach edge (63 vs 58) and 2 inches of height for her pressure-and-clinch game. The Carnelossi common opponent tells us little because Rodriguez's loss there was a DQ. Alencar's best upset path is a late scramble choke, the way Robertson armbarred Rodriguez. Both have 20% finish rates and normal layoffs, so expect a close, grappling-heavy 15 minutes.
- Rodriguez has better striking output, accuracy and defensive metrics
- Rodriguez's 66% takedown defense challenges Alencar's 13% takedown accuracy
- Alencar leads the opponent-adjusted Elo and presents a credible submission threat
- Both enriched histories show three straight wins; inconsistent records limit confidence
Write-up
Rodriguez narrowly gets the pick through superior striking differential (+0.80 versus -2.31), accuracy and takedown defense. Her wrestling efficiency offers another route to winning rounds. Alencar's opponent-adjusted Elo implies a 57% win probability, providing meaningful counterevidence alongside her recent submission victory and Rodriguez's submission loss. Both have three consecutive wins in the enriched logs; Rodriguez's older structured history omits two, weakening the negative trend signal. Alencar's common-opponent advantage carries limited weight because Rodriguez lost by disqualification. Neither supplied layoff exceeds 450 days. Conflicting records and limited samples keep this close. Method percentages are conditional on Rodriguez winning.