There is no market line, no Elo and no UFC stats for Szabova, so this is a low-information pick and the confidence reflects that. Szabova is an undefeated 12-0 prospect, aged 28, making her UFC debut. Her undefeated record is the main thing in her favor, but we have no data on who she beat. Lisboa is 2-2 in the UFC. Her wins came in 2023 (a rear-naked choke over Jessica-Rose Clark and a decision over Ravena Oliveira), but she has lost her last two by stoppage: a keylock submission to Luana Santos in round 2 and a TKO to Melissa Croden in round 3. She has also been out 372 days. All four of her UFC fights were at bantamweight, and this bout is booked at women's flyweight. A first UFC cut to 125 after a year away is a real risk factor. It could also cancel out the 5'7", 67" frame that is her one clear physical edge. Her UFC per-minute numbers (2.05 SLPM, 2.05 TD/15, 70% TD defense) describe a low-output grappler who wins position battles rather than a finisher. With two straight losses, a layoff and a weight cut on one side and an unbeaten prospect on the other, the edge goes to Szabova. Debut nerves and her unknown level of opposition keep this close to a coin flip.

Szabova gets a narrow lean from her reported 12-0 record and Lisboa's consecutive stoppage losses. Szabova is making her UFC debut, so that record is outside the UFC and her missing statistics establish no stylistic advantage. Lisboa's positive striking differential and takedown production provide credible winning paths, but her recent losses temper those averages. Lisboa's roughly year-long absence adds uncertainty, although it falls below the 450-day material-risk threshold. Opposition quality is insufficiently documented to establish a clear advantage. Decision is a tentative selection without Szabova finishing data; method probabilities are conditional on her winning.