Dakota Hope replaced Gastón Bolaños around October 8, after Bolaños withdrew with a cut eyebrow from training. Marshall missed weight at 148 lbs (146 is the featherweight non-title limit) and will be fined part of his purse, and the bout is reported to be going ahead.
- Dakota Hope Gastón Bolaños, Marshall's original opponent, withdrew after suffering a cut on his eyebrow in training. The UFC booked Dakota Hope as the replacement, and the article was updated October 8, 2026, about 23 days before the event. source
- Francis Marshall Marshall weighed in at 148 lbs, two pounds over the featherweight non-title limit. Hope weighed 145.5 lbs. Sherdog reports Marshall will be fined a percentage of his purse. source
- Francis Marshall RDX Sports reports that Marshall will forfeit 20 percent of his purse to Hope and that the bout will go ahead. This figure comes from that single outlet. source
- Marshall has won two straight (RNC over Erik Silva, UD over Lucas Brennan), and his last four UFC fights were all decisions
- Hope took the fight on roughly three weeks' notice after Bolaños's eyebrow cut, so he had a shorter camp prepared for a different opponent
- Marshall's striking is a liability (34% accuracy, -0.47 differential); his edge comes from wrestling at 2.68 TD/15
- Hope's only UFC data point is a split-decision loss to Kai Kamaka III, which shows he is competitive at this level, but the sample is tiny
- Marshall's 72" reach and lightweight experience give him a size edge at 145
Write-up
There is no market line or Elo here either. Marshall is 4-3 in the UFC and comes in on a two-fight win streak: a rear-naked choke over Erik Silva (Feb 2026) and a unanimous decision over Lucas Brennan (Apr 2026). His losses tell you how his fights tend to go: split decisions to William Gomis and Mairon Santos, plus a first-round elbow TKO against Isaac Dulgarian. Marshall wins close, grinding fights. His striking numbers are poor (3.69 SLPM against 4.16 SApM, 34% accuracy, 53% defense), so he needs his wrestling (2.68 TD/15) and control to win rounds. Hope is 11-2. The form log shows a split-decision loss to Kai Kamaka III at a UFC Fight Night in April 2026, even though the stats feed flags him as a debutant. Treat him as having one close fight and no usable UFC averages. He replaced Gastón Bolaños, who withdrew after cutting his eyebrow in training. The report dates to about Oct 8, roughly three weeks before the event. Three weeks is a short camp built for a different opponent, which is a modest adjustment against Hope. It is not a disaster, because he was presumably in shape after fighting in April. Marshall moves between lightweight and featherweight, and his 72" reach is long for 145. He also had the full camp and has the more proven UFC wrestling. Both men's recent fights were close decisions, which makes another decision the most likely result. Hope's thin data and Marshall's porous striking defense keep this in the low 60s.
- Marshall's established UFC experience and takedown production
- Hope's debut creates substantial statistical uncertainty
- Replacement preparation and inconsistent recent-form data limit confidence
Write-up
Marshall's UFC experience and 2.68 takedowns per 15 minutes provide a plausible route to winning rounds. The enrichment log reports consecutive wins, including a submission, although conflicting and duplicated recent-form entries weaken confidence. Hope is flagged as a UFC debutant, so his supplied statistical averages cannot establish reliable matchup advantages. His replacement status adds preparation uncertainty, but the acceptance date is unknown. Neither fighter's reported layoff exceeds the material-risk threshold. Marshall's negative striking differential leaves room for an upset, and the supplied opposition history establishes no clear quality advantage. Method percentages are conditional on Marshall winning.