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UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. PratesFeatherweightPrelims
Chris GutierrezWINNER
Chris
Gutierrez
10-3UFC
34 yrsElo 1598
VS
John Castaneda
John
Castaneda
4-3UFC
33 yrsElo 1506
Final: Chris Gutierrez by S-DEC
Who wins
Claude
75%
Gutierrez
GPT
80%
Gutierrez
Elo
63%
Gutierrez
1598 vs 1506
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
5'9" Height 5'6"
67" Reach 71"
Orthodox Stance Switch
4.40 Landed / min 4.67
2.65 Absorbed / minlower better 5.22
57% Strike accuracy 50%
63% Strike defense 54%
0.30 Takedowns / 15 1.79
30% TD accuracy 35%
67% TD defense 71%
0.1 Subs / 15 0.1
How it ends
Claude: KO/TKO 30%Claude: Submission 10%Claude: Decision 60%
60%Decision
Claude calls Decision
KO/TKO 30%Submission 10%Decision 60%
GPT: KO/TKO 30%GPT: Submission 20%GPT: Decision 50%
50%Decision
GPT calls Decision
KO/TKO 30%Submission 20%Decision 50%
Formnewest first
Chris Gutierrez419 days out
W
Quang Le
U-DEC · 2024-03-02
L
Song Yadong
U-DEC · 2023-12-09
W
Alatengheili
U-DEC · 2023-10-14
L
Pedro Munhoz
U-DEC · 2023-04-15
W
Frankie Edgar
KO/TKO · 2022-11-12
John Castaneda475 days out
L
Daniel Marcos
U-DEC · 2024-01-06
W
Kyung Ho Kang
U-DEC · 2023-11-11
W
Muin Gafurov
U-DEC · 2023-06-03
L
Daniel Santos
KO/TKO · 2022-10-01
W
Miles Johns
SUB · 2022-02-05
Why
Claude
Chris Gutierrez
75% · Decision
  • Gutierrez's +2.08 strike differential advantage
  • 10% higher striking defense (64% vs 54%)
  • Superior distance management and leg kick accuracy
  • Better recent form with 2-fight win streak
Write-up

Gutierrez's superior striking efficiency (+2.08 differential vs -0.55) and 64% defensive rate create a significant technical advantage. His leg kick-heavy style matches up well against Castaneda's switch stance approach, while his 71% takedown defense can neutralize Castaneda's wrestling attempts.

GPT
Chris Gutierrez
80% · Decision
  • Chris Gutierrez's superior striking volume and accuracy
  • Gutierrez's positive striking differential
  • John Castaneda's negative striking differential
  • Gutierrez's slight advantage in takedown defense
Write-up

Chris Gutierrez shows clear advantages in striking volume, accuracy, and defense. His differential indicates he lands significantly more than he absorbs. Castaneda has a negative differential and lower defensive efficiency. Both fighters' grappling statistics are comparable, but Gutierrez's takedown defense is slightly superior. Despite the reach disadvantage, Gutierrez's superior striking skills should carry him through.