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WINNER
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. PratesWelterweightMain card
Ian Machado
Garry
8-1UFC
VS
Carlos
Prates
3-1UFC
Final: Ian Machado Garry by U-DEC
Who wins
Garry winsevenPrates wins
Elo 59% Garry
GPT 60% Garry
Claude 75% Garry
Claude
75%
Garry
GPT
60%
Garry
Elo
59%
Garry
1639 vs 1578
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
6'3"
Height
6'1"
74"
Reach
78"
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
4.78
Landed / min
3.60
2.86
Absorbed / minlower better
4.79
54%
Strike accuracy
54%
52%
Strike defense
48%
0.92
Takedowns / 15
0.25
31%
TD accuracy
100%
80%
TD defense
83%
0.4
Subs / 15
n/a
How it ends
65%Decision
Claude calls Decision
KO/TKO 25%Submission 10%Decision 65%
70%Decision
GPT calls Decision
KO/TKO 20%Submission 10%Decision 70%
Formnewest first
Ian Machado Garry139 days out
L
Shavkat Rakhmonov
U-DEC · 2024-12-07
W
Geoff Neal
S-DEC · 2024-02-17
W
Michael Page
U-DEC · 2024-01-27
W
Neil Magny
U-DEC · 2023-08-19
W
Daniel Rodriguez
KO/TKO · 2023-05-13
Carlos Prates167 days out
L
win
· 2024-11-09
W
Li Jingliang
KO/TKO · 2024-03-09
W
Trevin Giles
KO/TKO · 2024-02-10
W
Charles Radtke
KO/TKO · 2024-01-06
Why
Claude
Ian Machado Garry
75% · Decision
- Garry's +2.33 strike differential vs Prates' -0.31
- Garry's 69% takedown defense neutralizes Prates' limited grappling
- 2-inch height advantage enables Garry's preferred long-range striking
- Garry's proven 5-fight win streak against higher caliber opposition
Write-up
Garry's superior striking accuracy (55% vs 48%) and defensive metrics combined with his height/reach advantage will allow him to control distance and accumulate points. His recent competition level has been significantly higher, showing consistent improvement against ranked opponents.
GPT
Ian Machado Garry
60% · Decision
- Higher striking volume and accuracy for Garry
- Better takedown accuracy and defense for Garry
- Strong upward trend in recent form for Garry
- Physical advantage for Garry with higher height and reach differential
Write-up
Ian Machado Garry has a higher significant strike rate, better takedown accuracy and defense, and a strong upward trend in his recent fights. He also has a slight physical advantage with a higher height differential and reach differential.