Jesus Aguilar vs Luis Gurule

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Aguilar's exceptional submission game (1.8 subs per fight) against a striker with zero grappling offense creates a clear path to victory. Gurule's 50% takedown defense and lack of UFC experience (0% win rate) suggests vulnerability to Aguilar's wrestling. Aguilar's 4-fight win streak with 2 recent first-round submissions shows peak form, while Gurule's striking volume advantage (7.0 vs 1.46 SLPM) becomes irrelevant if the fight hits the mat early.

Gurule's significant striking volume (7 SLpM) and solid accuracy (50%) present a high-paced threat against Aguilar, who is much less active offensively. Aguilar's grappling is a risk but his takedown accuracy is low (33%) and Gurule's takedown defense (50%) should be sufficient to keep the fight standing for long stretches. Both fighters are defensively similar in striking (58%), but Gurule's striking differential (+2.73) versus Aguilar's (+0.20) indicates a much greater output and efficiency on the feet. Aguilar's path relies on landing takedowns and submissions, but his wrestling success rate is limited and Gurule has not yet been submitted or outgrappled at this level.