Rafa Garcia vs Jared Gordon

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Gordon's striking volume advantage (5.75 vs 3.97 SLPM) and superior accuracy (55% vs 42%) create consistent scoring opportunities. While Garcia averages 3.38 takedowns per fight, his 44% accuracy against Gordon's 62% defense suggests limited success. Common opponent analysis shows both lost to Grant Dawson, but Gordon's competitive striking exchanges indicate better adaptability. Gordon's recent KO victory shows improved power, while Garcia is coming off back-to-back KO losses, raising durability concerns.

Jared Gordon holds significant advantages in striking volume, accuracy, and striking differential. Garcia is more wrestling-oriented with better takedown stats and defense, but Gordon's superior output and overall striking effectiveness make him likely to outpoint Garcia over three rounds. Gordon's takedown defense is adequate to keep the fight standing for long stretches, further favoring his style.