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Kelvin Gastelum vs Dustin Stoltzfus

Middleweight · Main card · UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva

FINAL: Kelvin Gastelum by U-DEC
Kelvin Gastelum
Kelvin Gastelum
Age 33 · Elo 1561
LWLWL
98 days since last fight
vs
Dustin Stoltzfus
Dustin Stoltzfus
Age 33 · Elo 1443
LLLWL
119 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Kelvin GastelumDustin Stoltzfus
Claude Claude: Kelvin Gastelum 72% Claude: Dustin Stoltzfus 28% 72% 28% GPT GPT: Kelvin Gastelum 78% GPT: Dustin Stoltzfus 22% 78% 22% Elo Elo: Kelvin Gastelum 66% Elo: Dustin Stoltzfus 34% 66% 34%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Kelvin GastelumDustin Stoltzfus
Strikes landed / min Kelvin Gastelum Strikes landed / min: 3.65 3.65 Dustin Stoltzfus Strikes landed / min: 3.30 3.30 Strikes absorbed / min Kelvin Gastelum Strikes absorbed / min: 3.52 3.52 Dustin Stoltzfus Strikes absorbed / min: 3.23 3.23 Striking accuracy Kelvin Gastelum Striking accuracy: 42% 42% Dustin Stoltzfus Striking accuracy: 45% 45% Striking defense Kelvin Gastelum Striking defense: 57% 57% Dustin Stoltzfus Striking defense: 47% 47% Takedowns / 15 min Kelvin Gastelum Takedowns / 15 min: 1.04 1.04 Dustin Stoltzfus Takedowns / 15 min: 2.08 2.08 Takedown defense Kelvin Gastelum Takedown defense: 60% 60% Dustin Stoltzfus Takedown defense: 46% 46% Sub attempts / 15 min Kelvin Gastelum Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.1 0.1 Dustin Stoltzfus Sub attempts / 15 min: 1.1 1.1

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 28% 28% Claude: Submission 12% 12% Claude: Decision 60% 60%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 18% 18% GPT: Submission 7% GPT: Decision 75% 75%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Kelvin Gastelum by Decision, 72% confidence

Gastelum's superior striking defense (57% vs 47%) and recent form momentum give him a clear edge. Stoltzfus is on a 3-fight losing streak with 2 KO/TKO losses, indicating declining durability. Gastelum's southpaw stance creates awkward angles against Stoltzfus's orthodox approach, and his experience advantage at the elite level should allow him to control distance despite the 4-inch reach disadvantage.

GPT
Kelvin Gastelum by Decision, 78% confidence

Gastelum holds a significant edge in striking defense (57% vs 47%) and has consistently faced higher-tier opposition. While Stoltzfus averages more takedowns and submissions, his takedown accuracy and defense are both lower than Gastelum's historical defensive metrics. Gastelum's durability, higher win rate, and ability to keep fights standing should allow him to control the tempo and outpoint Stoltzfus over three rounds.