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Jose Medina vs Dusko Todorovic

Middleweight · Prelims · UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva

FINAL: Dusko Todorovic by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Jose Medina
Jose Medina
Age 34 · Elo 1474*
No UFC fights on record
vs
Dusko Todorovic
Dusko Todorovic
Age 31 · Elo 1491
LWLWL
910 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Jose MedinaDusko Todorovic
Claude Claude: Jose Medina 22% Claude: Dusko Todorovic 78% 22% 78% GPT GPT: Jose Medina 19% GPT: Dusko Todorovic 81% 19% 81% Elo Elo: Jose Medina 48% Elo: Dusko Todorovic 52% 48% 52%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Jose MedinaDusko Todorovic
Strikes landed / min Jose Medina Strikes landed / min: 1.60 1.60 Dusko Todorovic Strikes landed / min: 4.52 4.52 Strikes absorbed / min Jose Medina Strikes absorbed / min: 4.87 4.87 Dusko Todorovic Strikes absorbed / min: 4.20 4.20 Striking accuracy Jose Medina Striking accuracy: 26% 26% Dusko Todorovic Striking accuracy: 57% 57% Striking defense Jose Medina Striking defense: no data - Dusko Todorovic Striking defense: 48% 48% Takedowns / 15 min Jose Medina Takedowns / 15 min: 0.00 0.00 Dusko Todorovic Takedowns / 15 min: 2.03 2.03 Takedown defense Jose Medina Takedown defense: 14% 14% Dusko Todorovic Takedown defense: 40% 40% Sub attempts / 15 min Jose Medina Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.0 0.0 Dusko Todorovic Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.3 0.3

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 65% 65% Claude: Submission 10% 10% Claude: Decision 25% 25%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 65% 65% GPT: Submission 5% GPT: Decision 30% 30%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Dusko Todorovic by KO/TKO, 78% confidence

Todorovic's massive striking advantages (5.54 vs 1.6 SLPM, 57% vs 26% accuracy) combined with recent KO power make this a severe mismatch. Medina's 0% striking defense and -3.27 differential indicate extreme defensive liabilities. Todorovic's 4 finishes in 5 recent fights, with 3 KOs, align perfectly against an opponent absorbing 4.87 strikes per minute.

GPT
Dusko Todorovic by KO/TKO, 81% confidence

Dusko Todorovic holds major statistical advantages in striking volume, accuracy, and defensive efficiency. Medina's extremely low output, poor striking defense, and abysmal takedown defense (14%) make him highly vulnerable to Todorovic's aggressive and accurate offense. While Todorovic is hittable himself, Medina lacks the output or finishing ability to capitalize. Expect Todorovic to overwhelm Medina with pressure, likely finishing inside the distance.