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UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. SilvaMiddleweightPrelims
Jose Medina
Jose
Medina
34 yrsElo 1474*UFC debut
VS
Dusko TodorovicWINNER
Dusko
Todorovic
3-4UFC
31 yrsElo 1491
Final: Dusko Todorovic by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Who wins
Claude
78%
Todorovic
GPT
81%
Todorovic
Elo
52%
Todorovic
1474 vs 1491
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
6'0" Height 6'1"
74" Reach 74"
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
1.60 Landed / min 4.52
4.87 Absorbed / minlower better 4.20
26% Strike accuracy 57%
n/a Strike defense 48%
0.00 Takedowns / 15 2.03
0% TD accuracy 24%
14% TD defense 40%
0.0 Subs / 15 0.3
Small sample: Jose Medina, 0 UFC fights.
How it ends
Claude: KO/TKO 65%Claude: Submission 10%Claude: Decision 25%
65%KO/TKO
Claude calls KO/TKO, Round 2
KO/TKO 65%Submission 10%Decision 25%
GPT: KO/TKO 65%GPT: Submission 5%GPT: Decision 30%
65%KO/TKO
GPT calls KO/TKO
KO/TKO 65%Submission 5%Decision 30%
Formnewest first
Jose Medina
No UFC fights
Dusko Todorovic910 days out
L
Christian Leroy Duncan
KO/TKO · 2023-03-18
W
Jordan Wright
KO/TKO · 2022-10-15
L
Chidi Njokuani
KO/TKO · 2022-05-21
W
Maki Pitolo
KO/TKO · 2021-12-04
L
Gregory Rodrigues
U-DEC · 2021-06-05
Why
Claude
Dusko Todorovic
78% · KO/TKO
  • Todorovic lands 5.54 strikes/minute with 57% accuracy vs Medina's 1.6 at 26%
  • Medina's 0% striking defense and 14% takedown defense leave him completely exposed
  • Todorovic has 3 KO/TKOs in last 5 fights against better competition
  • 20-pound weight advantage for Medina (205 vs 185) unlikely to overcome technical gap
Write-up

Todorovic's massive striking advantages (5.54 vs 1.6 SLPM, 57% vs 26% accuracy) combined with recent KO power make this a severe mismatch. Medina's 0% striking defense and -3.27 differential indicate extreme defensive liabilities. Todorovic's 4 finishes in 5 recent fights, with 3 KOs, align perfectly against an opponent absorbing 4.87 strikes per minute.

GPT
Dusko Todorovic
81% · KO/TKO
  • Todorovic's SLpM (5.54) vs. Medina's SLpM (1.6)
  • Todorovic's striking accuracy (57%) vs. Medina's (26%)
  • Medina's takedown defense (14%) and poor overall defense
Write-up

Dusko Todorovic holds major statistical advantages in striking volume, accuracy, and defensive efficiency. Medina's extremely low output, poor striking defense, and abysmal takedown defense (14%) make him highly vulnerable to Todorovic's aggressive and accurate offense. While Todorovic is hittable himself, Medina lacks the output or finishing ability to capitalize. Expect Todorovic to overwhelm Medina with pressure, likely finishing inside the distance.