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Rodrigo Sezinando vs Daniil Donchenko

Welterweight · Prelims · UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva

FINAL: Daniil Donchenko by KO/TKO Punches
Rodrigo Sezinando
Rodrigo Sezinando
Age 27 · Elo 1476*
No UFC fights on record
vs
Daniil Donchenko
Daniil Donchenko
Age 24 · Elo 1565*
No UFC fights on record

Who wins, by source

Rodrigo SezinandoDaniil Donchenko
Claude Claude: Rodrigo Sezinando 42% Claude: Daniil Donchenko 58% 42% 58% GPT GPT: Rodrigo Sezinando 55% GPT: Daniil Donchenko 45% 55% 45% Elo Elo: Rodrigo Sezinando 37% Elo: Daniil Donchenko 63% 37% 63%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Rodrigo SezinandoDaniil Donchenko
Strikes landed / min Rodrigo Sezinando Strikes landed / min: no data - Daniil Donchenko Strikes landed / min: 8.07 8.07 Strikes absorbed / min Rodrigo Sezinando Strikes absorbed / min: no data - Daniil Donchenko Strikes absorbed / min: 2.80 2.80 Striking accuracy Rodrigo Sezinando Striking accuracy: 0% 0% Daniil Donchenko Striking accuracy: 62% 62% Striking defense Rodrigo Sezinando Striking defense: 0% 0% Daniil Donchenko Striking defense: 70% 70% Takedowns / 15 min Rodrigo Sezinando Takedowns / 15 min: no data - Daniil Donchenko Takedowns / 15 min: 0.58 0.58 Takedown defense Rodrigo Sezinando Takedown defense: 0% 0% Daniil Donchenko Takedown defense: 75% 75%

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 25% 25% Claude: Submission 20% 20% Claude: Decision 55% 55%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 10% 10% GPT: Submission 10% 10% GPT: Decision 80% 80%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Daniil Donchenko by Decision, 58% confidence

This UFC debut matchup between two prospects lacks statistical data, making it a coin flip. Donchenko gets the slight edge due to his younger age (24 vs 27) suggesting potentially better athleticism and recovery. Both fighters share orthodox stances, making this a technical mirror match. The lack of UFC experience data means regional MMA records and training camps will be crucial factors not reflected in these stats.

GPT
Rodrigo Sezinando by Decision, 55% confidence

With no UFC statistical data for either fighter, the analysis is based entirely on stylistic factors and presumed parity. Both fighters have balanced styles and no clear physical advantage, suggesting a competitive, closely contested fight likely to go the distance. In such debut or data-absent matchups, the slight edge is given to Sezinando due to presumed marginal athleticism and the possibility of a marginally superior skill set.