Claudio Puelles vs Joaquim Silva

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Silva's significant striking volume advantage (3.66 vs 1.56 SLPM) and superior striking defense (53% vs 46%) should control the standup exchanges. While Puelles has the grappling edge with 3.17 takedowns per fight, Silva's 69% takedown defense and ability to scramble back to his feet will limit control time. Silva's recent form shows better consistency despite mixed results, and his experience advantage at 35 years old versus Puelles at 28 should help him navigate the grappling threats.

Puelles has a significant grappling advantage with much higher takedown and submission averages. While Silva is more active on the feet and has a reach edge, he absorbs more strikes than he lands and has historically struggled with strong grapplers. Puelles' clear path to victory is to get the fight to the mat where Silva is vulnerable, especially given Silva's subpar takedown defense and history of being submitted. If forced to strike, Puelles may struggle, but the stylistic matchup favors his ground game.