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Tatiana Suarez vs Amanda Lemos

Women's Strawweight · Prelims · UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva

FINAL: Tatiana Suarez by U-DEC
Tatiana Suarez
Tatiana Suarez
Age 34 · Elo 1641
LWWWW
216 days since last fight
vs
Amanda Lemos
Amanda Lemos
Age 38 · Elo 1565
WWLLW
188 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Tatiana SuarezAmanda Lemos
Claude Claude: Tatiana Suarez 78% Claude: Amanda Lemos 22% 78% 22% GPT GPT: Tatiana Suarez 80% GPT: Amanda Lemos 20% 80% 20% Elo Elo: Tatiana Suarez 61% Elo: Amanda Lemos 39% 61% 39%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Tatiana SuarezAmanda Lemos
Strikes landed / min Tatiana Suarez Strikes landed / min: 4.27 4.27 Amanda Lemos Strikes landed / min: 2.84 2.84 Strikes absorbed / min Tatiana Suarez Strikes absorbed / min: 1.38 1.38 Amanda Lemos Strikes absorbed / min: 3.22 3.22 Striking accuracy Tatiana Suarez Striking accuracy: 63% 63% Amanda Lemos Striking accuracy: 55% 55% Striking defense Tatiana Suarez Striking defense: 51% 51% Amanda Lemos Striking defense: 44% 44% Takedowns / 15 min Tatiana Suarez Takedowns / 15 min: 6.20 6.20 Amanda Lemos Takedowns / 15 min: 0.93 0.93 Takedown defense Tatiana Suarez Takedown defense: 100% 100% Amanda Lemos Takedown defense: 63% 63% Sub attempts / 15 min Tatiana Suarez Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.9 0.9 Amanda Lemos Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.7 0.7

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 15% 15% Claude: Submission 65% 65% Claude: Decision 20% 20%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 10% 10% GPT: Submission 55% 55% GPT: Decision 35% 35%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Tatiana Suarez by Submission, 78% confidence

Suarez's elite wrestling (6.2 takedowns per fight at 61% accuracy) combined with her perfect takedown defense (100%) creates a nightmare matchup for Lemos. The common opponent analysis shows Suarez submitted Jessica Andrade while Lemos lost to her by submission, indicating a clear grappling hierarchy. Suarez's undefeated record and 60% submission finish rate, coupled with Lemos' vulnerability to grapplers (lost 2 of last 5 by submission), makes this a dominant stylistic advantage.

GPT
Tatiana Suarez by Submission, 80% confidence

Suarez holds a significant grappling edge, averaging 6.2 takedowns per fight with 61% accuracy and perfect takedown defense, while Lemos struggles to defend takedowns (61% TDDef). Suarez's striking is more accurate and defensively sound, and she has performed better against common opponents. Lemos is dangerous on the feet but has a negative strike differential and is vulnerable to pressure wrestlers.