Tatiana Suarez vs Amanda Lemos
Women's Strawweight · Prelims · UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva
Who wins, by source
Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.
Tale of the tape
Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.
How it ends
Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.
The analysis
Suarez's elite wrestling (6.2 takedowns per fight at 61% accuracy) combined with her perfect takedown defense (100%) creates a nightmare matchup for Lemos. The common opponent analysis shows Suarez submitted Jessica Andrade while Lemos lost to her by submission, indicating a clear grappling hierarchy. Suarez's undefeated record and 60% submission finish rate, coupled with Lemos' vulnerability to grapplers (lost 2 of last 5 by submission), makes this a dominant stylistic advantage.
Suarez holds a significant grappling edge, averaging 6.2 takedowns per fight with 61% accuracy and perfect takedown defense, while Lemos struggles to defend takedowns (61% TDDef). Suarez's striking is more accurate and defensively sound, and she has performed better against common opponents. Lemos is dangerous on the feet but has a negative strike differential and is vulnerable to pressure wrestlers.