Alexander Hernandez vs Diego Ferreira

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Ferreira's superior striking volume (5.04 vs 4.38 SLPM) and defensive metrics create a significant advantage. His recent 3-fight KO streak shows improved power, while Hernandez's frequent weight class changes (3 in recent fights) suggest potential conditioning issues. Ferreira's 74-inch reach advantage and better striking differential (+1.61 vs -0.24) will control distance effectively.

Ferreira's higher striking volume, superior strike differential (+1.61 vs -0.24), and greater submission threat (0.6 subs per fight vs 0.1) provide clear statistical advantages. While Hernandez has better takedown defense (71% vs 60%) and a notable win over a shared opponent, Ferreira's ability to absorb less damage (3.43 SApM vs 4.62) and win rate (68.75% vs 53.3%) indicate a more consistent performance. Expect Ferreira's pressure and output to overwhelm Hernandez over three rounds.