Alessandro Costa vs Alden Coria

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Costa faces a UFC debutant in Coria who has no recorded statistics in the UFC database. Costa's recent form shows 3 KO/TKO finishes in his last 5 fights, demonstrating legitimate power at flyweight. His 90% takedown defense will likely neutralize any wrestling attempts from the inexperienced Coria. Costa's 4.14 strikes landed per minute with proven finishing ability against UFC-level competition makes this a significant mismatch against an untested opponent.

Costa has significant UFC experience and statistical advantages in striking and defensive grappling. Coria is making his UFC debut with no available high-level metrics, suggesting a large gap in proven ability and competition level. Costa's striking accuracy, output, and takedown defense should allow him to control the pace and range, minimizing Coria's potential for a finish.