Mitch Ramirez vs Mike Davis
Lightweight · Prelims · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira
Who wins, by source
Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.
Tale of the tape
Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.
How it ends
Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.
The analysis
Davis holds significant advantages across all key metrics. His striking volume (5.35 SLPM vs Ramirez's 2.37) gives him a massive output edge, while his grappling superiority (2.77 TDAvg vs 0.91) allows him to dictate where the fight takes place. Ramirez's 0% TDD is particularly concerning against Davis who has shown improved submission skills (0.4 SubAvg) in recent fights. Davis is riding a 4-fight win streak with increasing finishing capabilities, while Ramirez is coming off a KO loss. Davis's technical striking improvements shown in his March 2024 win demonstrate his continued evolution, while Ramirez's defensive vulnerabilities (36% StrDef) make him highly susceptible to Davis's high-volume approach.
Mike Davis has a higher strike volume and accuracy, better defensive efficiency and a greater takedown average. Furthermore, Mitch Ramirez's takedown defense is poor, which could be exploited by Davis.