Stephen Thompson vs Gabriel Bonfim

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Thompson enters this fight on a concerning downward trajectory with three consecutive losses, including back-to-back KO/TKO defeats. At 41 years old, his durability has visibly declined. Bonfim presents a dangerous stylistic challenge with superior grappling metrics (2.92 TDAvg vs Thompson's 0.25) and submission threat (1.9 SubAvg vs Thompson's 0). Thompson's takedown defense (63%) will be severely tested by Bonfim's 75% takedown accuracy. While Thompson maintains a 3-inch reach advantage that could help his karate-based striking at range, his recent defensive vulnerabilities combined with Bonfim's well-rounded offensive arsenal and 80% win rate suggest Bonfim has multiple paths to victory. Thompson's declining durability and Bonfim's submission prowess point to a ground finish.

Bonfim's superior takedown accuracy and submissions per fight suggest a ground-based strategy. While Thompson has decent takedown defense, Bonfim's high volume of strikes could create openings for takedowns, leading to submission opportunities.