Derrick Lewis vs Tallison Teixeira

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Lewis brings vastly superior UFC experience against a UFC debutant in Teixeira. While Teixeira shows impressive striking volume (14.87 SLPM), his defensive metrics (58% defense) suggest vulnerability to Lewis's one-punch knockout power. Lewis's recent form shows a moderate upward trend with two KO/TKO wins in his last three fights, while Teixeira remains untested at the UFC level. Lewis's proven takedown defense (52%) should be sufficient to keep the fight standing where his experience and power advantages can be leveraged. The 4-inch reach disadvantage for Lewis is concerning, but his countering ability and timing should overcome this physical deficit against the less experienced Teixeira.

Teixeira's striking volume and accuracy outweigh Lewis's stats significantly, making him the likely winner via knockout or technical knockout.