This matchup features Curtis dropping to welterweight against the veteran Griffin in what projects as a primarily striking affair. Curtis brings superior volume (5.76 SLPM vs Griffin's 3.92) and slightly better striking accuracy (51% vs 49%), though both fighters have similar defensive metrics. Griffin's wrestling advantage (1.45 TDs per fight vs Curtis' 0) is mitigated by Curtis' excellent 82% takedown defense. Curtis' experience against higher-caliber opposition at middleweight should translate well to welterweight, though the weight cut is a significant variable. Griffin's more balanced approach gives him multiple paths to victory, but Curtis' volume striking and pressure should be the difference-maker in close rounds. Curtis' durability has been exceptional throughout his career, having never been finished by strikes, which neutralizes Griffin's KO threat.

Based on the provided statistics, Chris Curtis has a slight edge over Max Griffin. Curtis has a higher volume of strikes per minute and better takedown defense, despite having a slightly lower striking accuracy and defense. Neither fighter has shown strong ground control or submission skills, suggesting this fight will likely be decided on the feet.