Calvin Kattar vs Steve Garcia

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Kattar enters this matchup on a troubling four-fight losing streak with diminishing performances, while Garcia rides a five-fight win streak with all recent victories coming via KO/TKO. The statistical comparison reveals Garcia's significant striking differential advantage (+2.7 vs Kattar's -1.99), indicating Garcia both lands more and absorbs less. Garcia's superior takedown defense (88% vs 72%) should neutralize Kattar's already limited wrestling game. Physically, Garcia holds advantages in height and reach, plus the southpaw stance creates additional challenges for Kattar. Most concerning for Kattar is his high strike absorption rate (6.75 SApM) against Garcia's proven finishing power. Kattar's extended layoffs (273.6 average days between fights vs Garcia's 70) suggest potential ring rust issues against a highly active opponent in peak form.

Steve Garcia has a higher striking accuracy, volume, and defensive efficiency. He also has a better win rate and more effective strike rate. The physical advantage due to height and reach differentials also favor Garcia.