Fight Genie logo Fight Genie
Back to the card

Vitor Petrino vs Austen Lane

Heavyweight · Prelims · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira

FINAL: Vitor Petrino by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Vitor Petrino
Vitor Petrino
Age 27 · Elo 1578
LWLWW
209 days since last fight
vs
Austen Lane
Austen Lane
Age 37 · Elo 1456
LWLLW
132 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Vitor PetrinoAusten Lane
Claude Claude: Vitor Petrino 72% Claude: Austen Lane 28% 72% 28% GPT GPT: Vitor Petrino 65% GPT: Austen Lane 35% 65% 35% Elo Elo: Vitor Petrino 67% Elo: Austen Lane 33% 67% 33%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Vitor PetrinoAusten Lane
Strikes landed / min Vitor Petrino Strikes landed / min: 3.24 3.24 Austen Lane Strikes landed / min: 2.70 2.70 Strikes absorbed / min Vitor Petrino Strikes absorbed / min: 2.71 2.71 Austen Lane Strikes absorbed / min: 2.45 2.45 Striking accuracy Vitor Petrino Striking accuracy: 48% 48% Austen Lane Striking accuracy: 50% 50% Striking defense Vitor Petrino Striking defense: 51% 51% Austen Lane Striking defense: 39% 39% Takedowns / 15 min Vitor Petrino Takedowns / 15 min: 2.60 2.60 Austen Lane Takedowns / 15 min: 1.50 1.50 Takedown defense Vitor Petrino Takedown defense: 79% 79% Austen Lane Takedown defense: 33% 33% Sub attempts / 15 min Vitor Petrino Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.7 0.7 Austen Lane Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.0 0.0

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 55% 55% Claude: Submission 20% 20% Claude: Decision 25% 25%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 30% 30% GPT: Submission 10% 10% GPT: Decision 60% 60%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Vitor Petrino by KO/TKO, 72% confidence

Petrino possesses significant technical advantages in this matchup despite moving up to heavyweight. His striking differential (+0.24) contrasts sharply with Lane's minimal differential (+0.03), and Petrino's grappling credentials (66% TD accuracy, 71% TD defense) give him multiple paths to victory. Lane's vulnerability to strikes (60% defense rating) and poor takedown defense (0% in UFC competition) create exploitable openings. Petrino's recent form shows development despite a submission loss, while Lane has been inconsistent with alternating wins and losses. The physical dimensions slightly favor Lane (6'6" vs 6'2", 80" reach vs 77"), but Petrino's technical superiority and higher finishing rate should overcome these disadvantages.

GPT
Vitor Petrino by Decision, 65% confidence

Vitor Petrino has superior grappling stats, with higher takedown accuracy, defense and average takedowns per fight. In addition, Petrino's striking defense is slightly better than Lane's. Given these stats, it's likely that Petrino will be able to control the fight and win by decision.