Nathaniel Wood vs Pavel Andrusca

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

This is the classic proven-veteran-versus-undefeated-prospect trap fight, and the data strongly backs the veteran. Wood is riding a four-fight win streak (Keita, Delgado, Charriere, Pineda) - all decisions, all against legitimate UFC featherweights, including a March 2026 split over the highly touted Losene Keita. His statistical profile is elite for a gatekeeper-plus: 5.64 SLpM at 51% accuracy against 4.25 absorbed, a +1.39 differential, with 73% takedown defense and enough offensive wrestling (1.35 TD/fight at 48%) to dictate where the fight happens. His 78.6% UFC win rate across 13 octagon bouts is the largest sample on this card. Andrusca is 8-0 but makes his UFC debut with zero verifiable data against UFC-caliber opposition - an unbeaten regional record is precisely the kind of resume Wood has repeatedly dismantled (Delgado was a hyped unbeaten prospect Wood outpointed). Wood's only caution flags are his 0% recent finish rate and age (33), but his consistency is remarkable: five straight fights to decision with high output every round. Expect Wood to weather early aggression, out-land the debutant in extended exchanges, and mix in takedowns to bank rounds. Confidence capped at 65 due to the debutant unknowns, but this is the safest pick on the card.

Wood is the substantially more proven UFC commodity and owns a strong statistical profile: 5.64 significant strikes landed per minute at 51% accuracy, a +1.39 striking differential, and 73% takedown defense. His pace, combination striking, and ability to mix in efficient takedowns should let him control more minutes. Andrusca's missing UFC-level data adds uncertainty and makes an early finish less predictable, so Wood winning a competitive but clear decision is the most defensible outcome.