Oumar Sy vs Modestas Bukauskas

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The market prices Sy at 64% but the Elo model (53%) and the common-opponent thread both suggest this is much closer. Bukauskas beat Ion Cutelaba over three rounds in May 2025; Sy was submitted by the same Cutelaba in his last outing. That said, Sy's raw tools are the real edge here: a 7-inch reach advantage (83 vs 76), a striking differential of +1.54 versus Bukauskas' -0.72, and elite defensive numbers (66% strike defense vs Bukauskas' porous 50%, absorbing 3.86 SApM). Sy's path to victory is the jab-heavy kickboxing-at-range game he used against Da Woon Jung, mixed with opportunistic takedowns - though Bukauskas' 82% takedown defense will blunt the wrestling more than most expect. The Cutelaba loss exposed Sy's tendency to leave his neck out in scrambles, and Bukauskas' opportunistic finishing (Craig elbow KO, standing TKOs) means Sy cannot coast. Fighting in Paris, the Frenchman gets the crowd and should win the rangier rounds, but I side closer to Elo than the market: this is a 57-60% fight for Sy, not 64%. Expect a competitive, mostly-standing decision where Sy's reach and defense bank rounds.

Sy has the stronger statistical profile, landing more while absorbing substantially less and holding advantages in accuracy, striking defense, and overall win rate. Bukauskas' 82% takedown defense should prevent prolonged control in some exchanges, but Sy's higher wrestling volume can still create clinch pressure and disrupt Bukauskas' striking rhythm. Sy's +1.54 significant-strike differential compared with Bukauskas' -0.72 differential favors Sy over three rounds.