Michael Page vs Nursulton Ruziboev

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Elo marginally favors Ruziboev (52-48), but Page's rating is provisional off only 4 rated fights and badly undersells the quality of his run - decisions over Jared Cannonier, Shara Magomedov and Kevin Holland are materially stronger scalps than Ruziboev's wins over Stoltzfus, McConico, Dumas and Pulyaev, none of whom crack the rankings. Ruziboev's lone step-up, Joaquin Buckley, outpointed him. Stylistically this is the matchup Page has spent a career winning: he absorbs just 1.51 significant strikes per minute (62% defense) with elite 58% accuracy, and his karate-style blitz-and-retreat game forces opponents to lead into counters. Ruziboev is a massive 6'5" middleweight with real one-punch power and an 80% takedown accuracy that represents the genuine path to victory - Page's 70% TDD and historic vulnerability to sustained wrestling (the Garry and Douglas Lima losses) is the concern. But Ruziboev averages only 1.36 takedowns per fight; he prefers to strike, and striking with MVP at range is a losing proposition when your own defense sits at 49%. Page is 39 and the athletic cliff could arrive any fight, which caps confidence, and Ruziboev's power means a single connect changes everything. The most probable script: Page frustrates from the outside, makes Ruziboev miss (46% accuracy against an elusive mover will drop further), pots shots with the lead hand, and takes a clear decision as he has in three straight - 0% finish rate in his recent UFC run says decision is heavily favored on his side.

Page's long-range, low-volume counterstriking projects well against Ruziboev's more hittable approach. Page holds advantages in striking accuracy (58% to 46%), defense (62% to 49%), absorption (1.51 to 2.68 significant strikes per minute), and reach. Ruziboev's best route is sustained grappling, but Page's 70% takedown defense and evasive movement should limit clean entries. Page is likely to control distance and win the clearer striking exchanges over three rounds.